India’s Crude Oil Imports from US to Surge Beyond 1 Million BPD in Q2 2025

Import Projections

India’s crude oil imports from the United States are set to reach unprecedented levels, with projections indicating purchases exceeding 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) during April-June 2025. This significant increase aligns with India’s strategic goal to enhance annual energy imports from the US to $25 billion, up from the current $15 billion.

Trade & Geopolitics

The surge in US crude imports reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical considerations and trade diversification efforts. Public sector entities, particularly Indian refiners, are leading this strategic shift. The exemption of crude oil and natural gas from tariffs has created a favorable environment for increased US energy imports without additional costs.

Market Dynamics

According to the US EIA’s December 2024 outlook, India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption for 2024 and 2025, surpassing China for the first time since 1998. This shift in consumption patterns has significant implications for global energy markets and trade relationships.

Strategic Implications

State-run refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum, account for over 70% of US crude imports. This strategic pivot towards US energy sources aligns with broader trade objectives and energy security goals. The high-quality, light-sweet grades from the US are particularly well-suited for India’s refining capabilities.

Economic Considerations

Despite higher freight costs associated with US crude imports, Indian refiners are evaluating the long-term economic benefits. The compatibility of US light-sweet crude with Indian refineries, coupled with strategic trade considerations, justifies the increased imports. Favorable pricing and stable supply further incentivize this shift in energy procurement strategy.

Published on May 2, 2025