Reliance Industries Q4 Results Preview: Flat Profits Expected Amid O2C Weakness

Analysts are projecting flat sequential operating profit for the much-anticipated Reliance Industries Q4 results, with weaknesses in its dominant oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business offsetting modest growth in retail and digital segments. The conglomerate, led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025 on Friday after market hours, with investors closely watching performance across its diverse business portfolio.

Overall Performance Expectations

According to estimates by Elara Capital, the upcoming Reliance Industries Q4 results are expected to show a 3.4 percent sequential rise in consolidated net profit, reaching approximately ₹19,171 crore. However, revenue is projected to decline by 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter to around ₹2.4 lakh crore. This mixed performance reflects the varied dynamics across RIL’s business segments.

The flat operating profit expectation comes as pressures in the company’s core Oil-to-Chemicals business are likely to be counterbalanced by modest growth in its consumer-facing retail and digital segments. Analysts note that while the conglomerate’s diversification strategy has provided some stability, the traditional energy business continues to significantly influence overall performance.

Investors are particularly focused on the sequential performance indicators as they provide insights into the company’s ability to navigate changing market conditions across its various business segments. While year-on-year comparisons show growth in most areas, the sequential metrics highlight more recent operational challenges and opportunities.

Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment Analysis

The Reliance Industries Q4 results are expected to show weakness in the company’s Oil-to-Chemicals division, which remains its largest revenue contributor. Goldman Sachs, in its preview note, stated: “We expect energy EBITDA to decline sequentially due to weaker O2C earnings.” This anticipated decline is primarily attributed to lower refining margins and reduced production volumes.

A sequential decline in gross refining margin (GRM) is anticipated, driven by weaker Singapore refining product cracks and higher crude premium. This represents a challenging environment for RIL’s refining business, which has historically been a significant profit generator for the conglomerate.

BNP Paribas echoed similar sentiments, forecasting “a sequential dip in RIL’s O2C and Oil & Gas divisions operating profit due to lower production volumes.” These assessments highlight the challenges facing the traditional energy business amid global market fluctuations and shifting industry dynamics.

Despite these near-term challenges, analysts believe that Reliance’s integrated business model and scale advantages will continue to provide benefits relative to competitors. The company’s ability to optimize operations across the hydrocarbon value chain has historically been a key competitive advantage during periods of market volatility.

Jio Platform’s Expected Performance

The telecom business is expected to be a bright spot in the upcoming Reliance Industries Q4 results, with Jio Platforms showing resilience and continued growth. According to Goldman Sachs, Jio’s revenue is expected to rise approximately 4 percent sequentially to ₹30,500 crore, driven by residual tariff hikes and strong performance in the fixed wireless access segment.

Subscriber additions remain robust, with analysts projecting that Jio added around 90 lakh new subscribers during the quarter. This continued user growth, combined with a focus on higher-value services, is supporting the telecom operator’s revenue expansion despite competitive market conditions.

BNP Paribas highlighted the strong performance of Jio’s AirFiber service, noting that “Jio’s strong AirFiber subscriber growth should boost its sequential revenue growth.” This expansion into fixed wireless services represents an important diversification within Jio’s product portfolio, potentially providing a new growth avenue beyond traditional mobile services.

The 16 percent year-on-year EBITDA growth projected by analysts underscores the improving profitability profile of the telecom business, which continues to benefit from increasing scale and operational efficiencies. With its diversified service portfolio and robust infrastructure, Jio remains well-positioned to capitalize on India’s growing digital ecosystem.

Retail Business Outlook

Reliance Retail is expected to deliver moderate growth in the upcoming Reliance Industries Q4 results, with sales projected to increase approximately 6.5 percent year-on-year in Q4. This performance comes as the company completes its store rationalization program and continues to focus on expanding its fashion segment, which offers higher margins compared to other retail categories.

Goldman Sachs expects “a slight improvement in margins sequentially as we view restructuring as largely behind.” This suggests that the organizational changes and operational adjustments implemented in previous quarters are beginning to yield positive results, potentially setting the stage for improved profitability moving forward.

Reliance Retail’s focus on fashion is expected to be a key growth driver in the Q4 results

Retail and digital revenues are broadly expected to grow in the low single digits sequentially, reflecting both moderate consumer demand and the company’s continued expansion in these segments. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Reliance Retail continues to benefit from its omnichannel approach and extensive physical presence across India.

Analysts will be closely watching commentary around the company’s next growth phase in retail, particularly regarding digital integration, e-commerce expansion, and potential new market entries. With the restructuring phase largely complete, investors are eager to understand management’s strategic priorities for scaling the retail business further.

Analyst Perspectives and Expectations

Major financial institutions have provided varied perspectives on the upcoming Reliance Industries Q4 results, though most agree on the general trajectory of flat to modest growth. Goldman Sachs has emphasized the challenges in the energy segment while highlighting potential improvements in consumer-facing businesses. Their analysis suggests that while near-term pressures exist, the diversification strategy continues to provide stability.

BNP Paribas has focused on the operational metrics across different segments, particularly noting the potential for Jio’s subscriber growth and ARPU improvements to offset weaknesses in traditional energy businesses. Their assessment reflects confidence in the company’s ability to navigate sectoral challenges through its multi-pronged business approach.

Elara Capital’s estimates provide specific numerical targets, projecting the 3.4 percent sequential rise in consolidated net profit to ₹19,171 crore against a 1.4 percent revenue decline to ₹2.4 lakh crore. These figures represent a balanced view that accounts for both growth areas and challenges across RIL’s diverse business portfolio.

The consensus among analysts suggests that while Q4 may show mixed results, the foundation for future growth remains solid. Most expect earnings growth to resume in FY26, driven by improvements across all key segments as market conditions normalize and strategic initiatives gain traction.

Future Growth Outlook

Looking beyond the immediate Reliance Industries Q4 results, analysts project a more positive outlook for fiscal year 2026. Goldman Sachs noted that “earnings growth is expected to resume in FY26 driven by growth across all the key segments.” This forecast suggests that current headwinds in the O2C business may be temporary, with longer-term fundamentals remaining strong.

The expected recovery is likely to be supported by several factors, including potential stabilization in refining margins, continued expansion in telecom and retail segments, and progressive contributions from new initiatives such as the renewable energy business. This multi-faceted growth approach remains central to RIL’s long-term strategy.

The company’s continued investments in new growth areas, including renewable energy, advanced materials, and digital services, are positioned as long-term value creators that may begin to show more meaningful contributions in the coming fiscal year. These initiatives represent Reliance’s strategic pivot toward future-oriented business segments with substantial growth potential.

Key Areas for Investor Focus

As RIL prepares to release its Reliance Industries Q4 results, investors and analysts will be paying particular attention to several key areas beyond the headline financial figures. Management commentary regarding future strategic directions will be especially important, given the company’s diverse business portfolio and ongoing transformation initiatives.

One critical area of focus will be commentary on how RIL plans its next phase of growth in the retail business. With the restructuring phase nearing completion, investors are eager to understand the roadmap for expansion, digital integration, and potential new market entries that could drive future revenue and profit growth in this segment.

Progress in the new energy business represents another vital area of interest. Reliance has made significant commitments to renewable energy and related technologies, and updates on project timelines, capital expenditure plans, and early operational metrics will provide valuable insights into this emerging growth pillar.

Beyond segment-specific updates, overall capital allocation strategy will remain a focus area. RIL’s approach to balancing investments across its traditional and emerging businesses, along with decisions regarding shareholder returns through dividends or buybacks, provides important context for evaluating the company’s financial priorities.

As Reliance Industries prepares to announce its fourth-quarter results on Friday after market hours, these varied perspectives and expectations set the stage for what will likely be a nuanced performance assessment across the conglomerate’s diverse business portfolio. While near-term challenges exist in certain segments, the company’s strategic diversification appears to provide a foundation for sustained long-term growth.